Saylorville: A ticking time bomb?

I'm not a hydrologist or meteorologist -- or even and engineer, but I can read a chart and I see an unusual and scary trend.

The river basins that feed Midwest rivers received up to 400% of normal precipitation throughout the fall and winter months. Couple that with below average temperatures, particularly in February, the stored water potential remained stagnate until the spring melt, and that contributed to record water levels in the Rock Island District. Water at the Saylorville Reservoir has elevated to levels far above those recorded in 2008 for the same period, and heading into the spring shower season.

In 2008, Saylorville had reached 840 ft by mid-March and had begun to fall. This year, we see reservoir levels 25-30 feet higher at mid-month and continue rising throughout the month, with an expected volume to reach capacity -- leaving no room for additional precipitation in the watershed without overwhelming flood control systems.

In both 2008 and 1993, Sayorville was a lot lower than it is today, yet we still saw record flooding in those years. In fact, the lake hasn't been anywhere near this high in the 33 years of historical data on the corps' website. Most years right where they like it, at about 836 ft.

That has to have local officials at least a little nervous. But I haven't heard anyone ask the question that begs asking: what will Saylorville look like in June if it reaches capacity by the end of March?

Socially speaking

I just read part of an article from yet another social media expert.

That's right, part. Why? Because I could spend all my time reading peoples' expert advice, so filter by disregarding those that come with an invitation for a free seminar. That may seem arbitrary, but I tend not to trust advice from people who are pretending to give it free while actively tossing me a sales pitch.

So as soon as I spotted the pitch, I quit reading and started to write a few thoughts of my own.

The article actually touched on a sensitivity of mine. Social media in the corporate world. I am turned off by blatant advertising disguised as conversation in social media. I tell people to either engage in open, honest discussions about issues you're passionate about or, if you have something to sell, just buy a targeted ad on facebook or promote a video on YouTube or get some adsense.

Lately I'm seeing a lot of local companies -- or principles of same -- following or friending media accounts or fan pages only as a way to publicize paid events or to sell products. For a small business whose reputation is critical, that's a bad idea. You end up alienating the very base you need to impress most.

I imagine these people are accepting free advice from veiled snake oil salesmen. The advice? Follow, link with and friend as many high profile entities as possible and get your message out there often -- and damn the consequences. To me, those people give off the same aroma as the pyramid schemers of the seventies.

My best advice is to get out there and socialize like you would normally, in a way that suits your own personality. Be authentic because your prospects can smell phonies. And when it comes time to make a pitch, don't disguise it as a "conversation"; buy the ad unit.

If you value your wares, then respect people enough to be able to judge them on merit in the light of day.

Slicing up billboard audiences

We've been seeing new digital billboards popping up along the city's busy thoroughfares and they're getting lots of attention from local and industry media.

The safety concerns are obvious: as electronic billboards become more attractive, they become more distractive to commuters. That's common sense. The very idea of targeting the commuting public flies in the face of all traffic safety initiatives. And although some state laws are prohibiting animated, moving or flashing campaigns, the wholesale concept of taking drivers' attention from the task at hand is a dangerous one.

On the other hand, the outdoor advertising market has been hit hard by the economic slowdown, so the outdoor industry is struggling to innovate. And in the digiboard, they've found some new life.

But in claiming "more advertising opportunities", they're making a very thin slice of the audience even thinner. Now instead of knowing your image will appear on a busy highway 24/7, you now only get a few seconds.

The advertising market is clearly heading for a state that's so fragmented that the only survivors will be large corporations who are in a position to use duplication and automation technologies to multiply thin local profit margins into usable revenue on regional and global scales. In that vein, there's no economic benefit to small businesses, nor the local community at large.

The fact is that what's bad about billboards is even worse when you digitize them.

VIDEO: Snow Plows vs Cars

I always find myself quite irritable by January, I think because the cold, snow and ice are wearing on me. One of my biggest annoyances this time of year has to be cars left on curbs during and after snowfall. Perhaps a few more of these plow vs parked car instances will get people motivated to move their cars.




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Mediacom vs. Sinclair - the public fight continues

Mediacom, the cable company, and Sinclair, the TV conglomerate, are fighting in public again, just as they did three years ago. Mediacom is claiming on their website that Sinclair is trying to gouge its cable TV customers by overcharging the provider for the right to include its affiliate stations in its cable line-up.

A 3-year agreement between Mediacom and Sinclair ends December 31st and negotiations for a new agreement appear to have stalled over transmission consent fees.

HOW MUCH ARE WE TALKING HERE?

For a little perspective, on its website, Mediacom puts the demand amount at "millions", but neither party will provide a specific amount. AP reports puts the number of affected cable subscribers at 700,000 -- 400,000 of whom are in Iowa.

Let's do some rough guesswork. If Sinclair is demanding Mediacom fork over $5 Million a year, that's about 60 cents per month per cable customer. $5 M divided by 700,000 divided by 12 months. If 100 non-premium channels each charged 60 cents a month for every subscriber, that's about $60 in consent fees per cable viewer every month.

Consider also that Sinclair as more than $1 Billion in debt, nearly half of which is coming due in the next year and a half.

What strikes me in this battle is the utter lack of transparency on each party. What was the old rate? What's the new rate being demanded? What percentage of an increase would that represent? Neither are willing to have an honest debate out in the open.

Viewers who will be affected by losing a channel can complain to the cities' cable franchise liaisons and the bickering parties.

Santorum in Iowa

In political circles, being seen in Iowa is synonymous with a Presidential bid. Arriving at the Clear Channel Radio studios in Des Moines cements that notion.

When Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) sat down with Jan Mickelson (WHO Radio), the question had to be asked. [Watch Windows Media]

Santorum also told a story of when he introduced the "Life Amendment" to No Child Left Behind and how he gained unwitting support from democrat Sen. Ted Kennedy. [Watch Windows Media]

Few Presidential contenders escape the Mickelson program escape without being asked to defend their stance on abortion and whether Roe v Wade is settled law. [Watch Windows Media]

Minimum wage increase generates anti-Obama buzz

Minimum wage is one of those touchy-feely Democratic issues that is supposed to take care of those who are mistreated by their thrifty employers, the same issue that is detested by Republicans, claiming it stifles small businesses and increases unemployment.

But in discussions about minimum wage, you hear few pundits compare minimum wage to a nominal 3% inflation rate (see chart right, showing 29 years of minimum wage vs. the 3% inflation curve).

In 2007, congress created the most recent amendment to the Fair Labor Standards Act that resulted in this month's wage boost, however some are blaming the current administration for hurting small businesses through an increase put in place before the election.

If you look at minimum wage since 1980 -- when conservative Republican Ronald Reagan was elected President -- and plot where it should have tracked (through conservative economic incentives designed to produce growth in American industry), it always seems to trail inflation and economic growth by a significantly margin; the US Congress has to make substantial corrections to boost it toward, but never up to, a nominal inflation rate.

Health care workers and agricultural producers are barely getting by, if at all, and corporate CEOs are making tremendous gains.

Why is it that top-end wages have skyrocketed while those of the real laborers have declined or stagnated? In the land of opportunity, this is symbolic of the way opportunity tends to shift toward the wealthy and away from the actual producers and this is yet another example.

In 20 of the past 29 years, you hoped that Republicans would have used their power for the good of main street America, but instead have lined the pockets of their most important constituents; big business lobbyists and their crony political action organizations.

2009 Fair acts: Firefall, Headeast & Pure Prairie League

It's wanting to see shows like these that make me feel both old and nostalgic at the same time. See you old-timers there!

2009 Iowa state Fair, Budweiser Stage sponsored by ABC5:
- Firefall, Thu & Fri (Aug 13 & 14) @ 7:30 & 9:30
- Headeast, Sat & Sun (Aug 15 & 16) @ 7:30 & 9:30
- Pure Prairie League, Mon & Tue (Aug 18 & 18) @ 7:30 & 9:30

HD poorly implemented in Des Moines

Since the digital TV switchover last month, it has become clear that local television stations have not fully embraced their new hi-def capabilities.

Watching channel 8-1 this morning, it's obvious they still use their old standard definition video cameras in the news studio and are simply up-converting the signal to high definition; it's a blurry picture.

Same story for channel 13-1. But in addition to using older SD cameras, whenever they slap in their lower third ticker, they have to drop the 16:9 image back to a 4:3 aspect ratio. So they use SD to shoot news talent, up-convert to HD for a wide-screen shot, then reduce back to SD when using a ticker. Watching this in glorious 16:9 hi-def is a train wreck!

And it appears that channel 5-1 isn't even pretending to be an HD news shop. If it weren't for their low-end SD studio gear, I'd say this is better. Unfortunately, of the big 3, our local ABC affiliate's newscasts remain the most difficult to watch.

So what did we gain in the digital switchover? We do receive more channels (channel 5's retro feed of old TV shows and channel 8's all-weather source) and most prime time network shows are much more crisp. But sadly for analog set owners, many of the bugs and lower thirds are clipped at the far edges of the screen.

I can't imagine the expense of a full HD transition, so I forgive local stations for a gradual upgrade -- especially in the face of a recession and lower ad revenues -- but I sincerely hope station managers are watching and recognizing how hideous their product looks.

Shawn Johnson with Murph & Andy

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Shawn Johnson sat in with Murph & Andy on KXnO Monday.

DMR: Climate bill unfair to Iowa, utilities say

Burning fossil fuels is a fundamentally flawed plan when it destroys the landscape and detracts from quality of life -- saying nothing of what it may or may be doing to the environment at large. It just makes a lot more sense to intercept the existing energy all around us. Unless, of course, you have an enormous financial stake in traditional energy production and any of the supporting industries. The industry should want to modernize and be more efficient, but the reality is that it's been cheaper for them to pollute the air.

Every rooftop and back yard could have some form of energy collection, whether solar, wind or hydro. The initial costs are coming down and ongoing maintenance is relatively inexpensive compared to all of the oil refined and burned to deliver coal to consumers as energy -- however considerably less profitable for MidAmerican Energy.

Follow the money and use your common sense.