Realty Market: Local broadcaster paints positive picture of Midwest real estate market, citing "new report"

If you watched the news on Channel 13 last night, you saw Erin Kiernan give the glowing housing numbers. She said Midwest sales figures "jumped 10%" compared to an 8% increase nationally. Kiernan also reported that prices increased by a percentage point and that the National Association of Realtors attributed the "spike in sales" to the $8,000 federal tax credit.

The story never mentioned the author of the real estate report, but it's fair to assume the figures were carefully crafted by the N.A.R., a national group that represents real estate professionals, and then regurgitated on the late news.

Localize!

Journalists are often encouraged to put a local angle to national stories to make them more relevant to audiences. In this case, however, no such work was done. In fact, had 10 minutes been invested in some basic research, we'd have learned that things aren't so bright in the metro, where average February sales are off 15.5% from last year and the total sales are down nearly 19%, fueled by 59% fewer transactions.

And in the last 30 days, sales were down by 39.4% over the same period last year and the number of sales represented only 41% of last year's figures.

The housing story doesn't appear on the broadcaster's website.

Polk County Residential Deed Sales - by the numbers

02/23/2010 - 03/22/2010
Qty: 283
Average Sale Price: 141,504
Total sales: 40,045,690

02/23/2009 - 03/22/2009
Qty: 479
Average Sale Price: 138,083
Total sales: 66,141,700
-------------------------------
02/01/2010 - 02/28/2010
Qty: 374
Average: 126,291
Total: 47,232,820

02/01/2009 - 02/28/2009
Qty: 394
Average: 147,673
Total: 58,183,220

Saylorville: A ticking time bomb?

I'm not a hydrologist or meteorologist -- or even and engineer, but I can read a chart and I see an unusual and scary trend.

The river basins that feed Midwest rivers received up to 400% of normal precipitation throughout the fall and winter months. Couple that with below average temperatures, particularly in February, the stored water potential remained stagnate until the spring melt, and that contributed to record water levels in the Rock Island District. Water at the Saylorville Reservoir has elevated to levels far above those recorded in 2008 for the same period, and heading into the spring shower season.

In 2008, Saylorville had reached 840 ft by mid-March and had begun to fall. This year, we see reservoir levels 25-30 feet higher at mid-month and continue rising throughout the month, with an expected volume to reach capacity -- leaving no room for additional precipitation in the watershed without overwhelming flood control systems.

In both 2008 and 1993, Sayorville was a lot lower than it is today, yet we still saw record flooding in those years. In fact, the lake hasn't been anywhere near this high in the 33 years of historical data on the corps' website. Most years right where they like it, at about 836 ft.

That has to have local officials at least a little nervous. But I haven't heard anyone ask the question that begs asking: what will Saylorville look like in June if it reaches capacity by the end of March?