The courageous among the 2012 GOP contenders

By some measures, the 2012 republican presidential line-up has been set, and but for the primaries have staked their claim on the White House.

Despite the media's bombardment of polling data, it's traditionally too early to tell who will lead the pack during the actual election year and some of today's shining stars are likely to be flushed after Iowa's Straw Pole next month.

This is my second season shooting (with a camcorder, mind you) interviews of right-leaning candidates at WHO Radio, arguably the most identifiable radio station in the largest population center of the first-in-the-nation state of Iowa. This is where the momentum begins for every President elected in modern times.

So it matters who shows up for the party. And while my list is growing almost by the day, a few high profile nomination seekers are conspicuously absent.

If history is the best predictor of the future, then establishing a good ground game here with a personable appearance on WHO's "Mickelson in the Morning" by this point in the season -- like John McCain did in 2008 and George W Bush did in 2000 -- is the key to the convention floor.

To date I've met Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Roy Moore, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and, as of yesterday, George Pataki. Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have bypassed the show altogether. The foregone conclusion for the latter frontrunners is failure.

UPDATE -- (Aug. 11, 2011) Former Speaker Newt Gingrich appeared with Simon Conway at the Iowa State Fair Wednesday.

Sarah Palin has become the Lady Gaga of politics; a professional celebrity with decent fundraising appeal. She would only hurt her credibility by having an authentic conversation with the Midwest's influential GOP leadership listening.

Mitt Romney is still licking wounds received in the 2008 wringer and isn't even bothering bringing his marbles to Iowa this time. His political baggage is heavy and his slick persona is not well received.

Newt Gingrich is seen as someone whose only aim is to burnish his brand, and thereby bolstering negotiating position, for better consulting gigs.

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