Real estate sales: no good news

The local media has widely reported improved real estate sales from April to May of this year, citing figures furnish wholesale by the Des Moines Association of Realtors, the real estate lobby group.

Despite those claims, the Polk County Assessor's database shows there were 2,860 residential deeds issued in Polk County, Iowa in the last six months (Dec-May), compared with 4,013 issued during the same six month period a year earlier. That's a 29% drop, not an increase.

The total sales numbers for that period are even worse, suffering a 45% decline from more than $600 M last year down to about $400 M this year. And while realty agents are doing their best to stave off commodity pricing through incentive kickbacks and other perception management practices, even the average sale price took a dive from $152 K to $140 K, an 8% loss.

This look is a broader picture than the one being offered by the realty association because it covers six months, but even residential sales between April & May of this year (and compared to last year) look dismal.

While my research did involve only one county, can the picture for the greater metro look remarkably better? No matter how you slice & dice, there's nothing good in these numbers.

So what's the deal here? Are reporters too lazy to do their own research? Or is there a bigger menace lurking, like media influence? Or maybe I'm just wrong.

Everyone's a social media marketer. Not.

I hear a lot of social media marketing advice pointed at business and it's being circulated by people who've been around a long time. I suppose they're seasoned, and I imagine their audience feels they're adequately qualified.

Nevertheless, this is worth considering. Educated marketing managers have become dispensible comodities because every Joe thinks he's a marketing whiz and can take the reigns on a moment's notice. And largely due to the boardroom's GMOOT syndrome, they get their chance -- for about two years.

Still, almost without regard for the quality of the CMO, budgets often get fixed in the marketing dept. instead of examining the sales strategy.

Real estate numbers drop again

It shouldn't surprise anyone that the National Association of Realtors finds some good news in the realty market, but the real story for Polk County isn't good, according to the County Assessor's numbers.

Residential sales in terms of total sales in May of '09 compared with May of '08 figures are down by almost half. That's inline with the quantity of sales, reflecting 44% fewer sales. The average sale prices was 5% lower than last year's sale.

And the spring numbers aren't getting better, as we might expect. Instead, compared to April of this year, May sucked for real estate pros. A $10M drop in total sales, more than 100 fewer and average price fell by another $10k.

Those are the real numbers, provided by the Polk County Assessor, but don't expect NAR to advertise this fact with the media.