Does the Iowa Straw Poll mean anything?
While most of the local media is focused on the Butter Cow at the Iowa State Fair, the national press is counting down the days before the year's largest republican fundraiser.
You might think, judging by the media frenzy surrounding this early presidential contest, the GOP gathering at Hilton Coliseum is a critical badge to earn in order to become a US president; candidates who don't participate are hurting themselves.
Not so fast, pundit breath.
Only once in thirty years has the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames predicted a presidential election, when in August of 1999, George W. Bush walked away with seemingly all the honors: Iowa Straw Poll, Iowa caucuses, other US primaries and the general election itself.
John McCain, who eventually won his party's nod in '08, earned only a tenth-place showing at the money gala.
Needless to say, as a measuring stick, it has little meaning. Only Bush 41 & 43 have eventually gone on to win the presidency after an Ames Straw Poll win -- and not necessarily in the same campaign year.
Even the early caucus and primary referendums don't indicate a winner in the general, so it makes you wonder what the fuss is all about.
National media coverage aside, the Iowa Straw Poll is a pointless exercise in the big campaign, so it's no wonder GOP frontrunners like Mitt Romney would choose to skip this particular dance. Besides, Romney has already achieved what other candidates would hope to gain from the event, so why risk potential landmines (like this video and this issue) along the Iowa trail?
You might think, judging by the media frenzy surrounding this early presidential contest, the GOP gathering at Hilton Coliseum is a critical badge to earn in order to become a US president; candidates who don't participate are hurting themselves.
Not so fast, pundit breath.
Only once in thirty years has the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames predicted a presidential election, when in August of 1999, George W. Bush walked away with seemingly all the honors: Iowa Straw Poll, Iowa caucuses, other US primaries and the general election itself.
John McCain, who eventually won his party's nod in '08, earned only a tenth-place showing at the money gala.
Needless to say, as a measuring stick, it has little meaning. Only Bush 41 & 43 have eventually gone on to win the presidency after an Ames Straw Poll win -- and not necessarily in the same campaign year.
Even the early caucus and primary referendums don't indicate a winner in the general, so it makes you wonder what the fuss is all about.
National media coverage aside, the Iowa Straw Poll is a pointless exercise in the big campaign, so it's no wonder GOP frontrunners like Mitt Romney would choose to skip this particular dance. Besides, Romney has already achieved what other candidates would hope to gain from the event, so why risk potential landmines (like this video and this issue) along the Iowa trail?
